
V
ladimir Putin’s troops may make “local gains” in a heavily fought over province of Ukraine but are unlikely to achieve an “operationally significant breakthrough,” British defence chiefs said on Tuesday.
They believe that Russian military chiefs are seeking to open up a “new axis of advance” in the Donetsk area of the eastern Donbas region.
The move appears to be aimed at “diverting” Ukrainian forces from the town of Bakhmut, which Putin’s army is seeking to seize, they added.
In its latest intelligence briefing, the Ministry of Defence said: “In the last three days, Russia has likely developed its probing attacks around the towns of Pavlivka and Vuhledar into a more concerted assault.
“The settlements lie 50km (31 miles) south-west of Donetsk city, and Russia previously used the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade in an unsuccessful assault on the same area in November 2022.
“Elements of the 155th are again involved as part of an at least brigade sized force which has likely advanced several hundred metres beyond the small Kashlahach River which marked the front line for several months.”
The updated added: “Russian commanders are likely aiming to develop a new axis of advance into Ukrainian-held Donetsk Oblast, and to divert Ukrainian forces from the heavily contested Bakhmut sector.
“There is a realistic possibility that Russia will continue to make local gains in the sector. However, it is unlikely that Russia has sufficient uncommitted troops in the area to achieve an operationally significant breakthrough.”
Both Russian and Ukrainian military chiefs are expected to launch spring offensives to try to get the upper hand in the conflict.