Votes are being counted in the crucial Caerphilly Welsh Parliament by-election after weeks of fierce campaigning by parties hoping to win the Welsh Parliament constituency from Labour.
Labour has led the Welsh Parliament since the devolved administration was first established in 1999 and Caerphilly has long been one of its strongholds.
However, recent polling has forecast Plaid Cymru and Reform UK to be the two biggest parties in Wales next year, and the turnout has been high.
Counting begins for the Caerphilly by-electionCounting begins for the Caerphilly by-election (Andrew Matthews/PA)The result in Caerphilly could be a bellwether for the Senedd election next May and will certainly be treated as such by the winning party.
The by-election was called following the sudden death of Hefin David, who had served as Member of the Senedd for Caerphilly since 2016.
A Welsh Labour spokesperson said: “Hefin David loved this constituency and its people.
“He’s been at the heart of our campaign throughout.
“This has been a tough campaign for the party for a variety of reasons, but we’re proud of what our staff and volunteers have achieved over the past six weeks and are committed to continuing to fight for Caerphilly and the Valleys.”
Reform UK head of policy Zia Yusuf said it was a ‘historic’ day for Wales (Andrew Matthews/PA Wire)
PA Wire
Reform head of policy Zia Yusuf said turnout was up and would be a “big surprise”, although he acknowledged there may have been some tactical voting which could affect the result for his party.
Speaking to GB News at the count, he said: “It is a big moment for our party, big day, and it’s going to be a big day, I think, for Wales.
“Because, what we know already, this is a seat that Labour had won every single time since it was elected in 1918 for the parliamentary seat, ever since the Senedd seat was created, Labour won every time.
“They’ve never lost an election here… We know they will lose. They’re almost certainly going to come in third place, it’s a catastrophe for Labour.
“The Labour Party and the Tory Party, the two old great parties that have dominated UK politics, will struggle to get even a quarter of the vote share today.
“So there’s a total and historic realignment in British politics happening in real time.”
The turnout was later confirmed as 50.43%, when it was under 44% in the Caerphilly constituency in the 2021 Senedd election and only 29.1% in the previous by-election, in Alyn & Deeside in February 2021.
Delyth Jewell, Plaid Cymru deputy leader, pictured with Reform UK head of policy Zia Yusuf, said the momentum was with her party (Andrew Matthews/PA Wire)
PA Wire
Also speaking at the count, Plaid Cymru deputy leader Delyth Jewell said she felt “excited and frightened”.
She said: “I still feel so excited about the campaign that we ran, I think it’s been a really energetic campaign.
“I feel excited and frightened at the same time, and I wish there were a word for those things together, because there are two very starkly different scenarios ahead of us.
“One of them is going to unfold in the next few hours, either we will see Plaid Cymru emerging as the party that’s won this by-election or Reform, and it’s been obvious the whole time, it was one or the other.
“No matter what way this goes, it’s going to be clear to voters in Wales that the only progressive party for the future of Wales is Plaid Cymru. We are also the only party that will be able to beat Reform.
“The momentum is with us, so no matter what happens in this by-election tonight, I think people’s minds will be focused.”
Huw Irranca-Davies, Deputy First Minister of Wales, suggested Labour has “failed” in its messaging to voters.
Huw Irranca-Davies, Deputy First Minister of Wales, said there could be a “very different result” in next May’s election (Andrew Matthews/PA Wire)
PA Wire
Speaking at the Caerphilly by-election count, he said: “We know where the polls have been, and, look, we fought a really good campaign with a really good candidate.
“If it’s reflected where the polls are, then we’re going to have to, in Welsh Labour and UK Labour, reflect on that very rapidly and then get on with working for the May elections.
“The job of us in Welsh Labour and UK Labour is actually now to lay the ground with compelling policies that make a difference to people.
“I think if we get on with that, with gusto, then we can see a very different result in next May’s election.
“UK Labour has had a hell of a year in which they’ve had to fix the economic foundations of this country after a disaster was left behind, but also get on with a lot of policies.
“And I think they would admit themselves, there’s probably been some missteps along the way in the last year, some policies they thought about again and are changing.”
“We fail to sell that compelling story,” he added.
“Going forward, we need to sell that compelling story about what we do next.”
